The first thing to understand is that there are probabilities at work. A trader with 55% winning days will average two or three 5day losing streaks per year and probably one 6day losing streak. A 6 day losing streak is enough to make the best trader feel like a complete moron. But he isn't. It's just probability
Tagged: trading.
[Markets with bearish sentiment without many positions is primed to fall as new entries reflect their perspective, whereas with many positions is more st risk of reversal as there may be no one left to sell.]
['Buy the rumour, sell the fact' refers to markets pricing in an event ahead of time and then reversing when it takes place. Often the moment of a news release is the apex of this sentiment and you may notice counterintuitively that good news getting priced in over time ends up reversing on its announcement]
Instead of gyrating back and forth for a while before finding equilibrium, the market now finds equilibrium very quickly after the release of economic data. Hedge funds and banks use regression analysis before the data release to estimate how far each asset should move on various outcomes and they execute trades via algorithm at the moment of release. They will buy or sell until all asset classes are approximately in line with where history suggests they should be and this will happen in microseconds. There is nothing left on the table for the human traders because all the liquidity in the market is hoovered by the bots in the first few microseconds.
[P&L targets remind you of the point where your job is done and so to book profits rather than increase leverage.]
[If the average moves on two instruments are respectively 1.2% and 0.6%, you wouldn't want the same position size in both.]
Tagged: trading.
[The market only cares about how economic data releases compare to expectations; so not in relation to last month or year but rather the median awaited by economists and traders.]
[When markets react to old or random news, focus more on what's happening rather than whether it makes sense.]
[If you backtest and find an optimal moving average that worked in the past, that doesn't guarantee success in the future. Better to pick what fits your timeline granularity.]
Tagged: trading.
How Bible Sales and Chipotle Explain the Economy
Automation erases the “training ground” work that once created experts. When machines do the junior tasks, no one learns the senior ones. Apprenticeship collapses. CEOs, driven by short-term preservation, hype AI as salvation because it buys them another quarter.
Trading is a serious intellectual pursuit that is also incredibly fun. The joy of attempting to solve an unsolvable puzzle. A nearly impossible daily test of discipline and selfcontrol. An endless emotional rollercoaster of instant feedback, frequent disappointment, sudden euphoria, and nearly unbearable periods of crushing selfdoubt.
Tagged: trading.
A Simple Marketing Worksheet
• Who's it for?
• What's it for?
• What is the worldview of the audience you're seeking to reach?
• What are they afraid of?
• What story will you tell? Is it true?
• What change are you seeking to make?
• How will it change their status?
• How will you reach the early adopters and neophiliacs?
• Why will they tell their friends?
• What will they tell their friends?
• Where's the network effect that will propel this forward?
• What asset are you building?
• Are you proud of it?
Convert your videos into super low-quality Nokia phone style videos for memes. Upload any video and it'll be degraded to that classic early 2000s Nokia aesthetic.
Cyd - Claw back your data from Big Tech
Backup and delete all of your tweets, and migrate them to Bluesky.
Save a searchable copy of your data from tech platforms locally on your computer.
Migrate your tweets from closed platforms like X into open platforms like Bluesky.
Cyd runs directly on your computer, not on our servers. We don't have access to any of your accounts, or to any of the data in them.
[Trusted marketers earn enrollment because they make a promise and keep it. With trust comes attention that lets them tell a story uninterrupted. The story can lead to more enrollment, more promises, more trust.]
[Everyone is famous to 1500 people. In our culture, fame breeds trust.]
[It takes more (stress) for a customer to say yes than to walk away.]
[Make sure your most loyal customers have a megaphone to tell others: people like us do things like this.]
[Building new things for your customers (instead of finding new customers for your things) implies investing in their lifetime value.]
[A supermarket might expect the lifetime value of their regulars to be thousands of dollars, so they would do well to 1. sponsor events for new residents in the area and 2. do right when a local complains about the fruit not being ripe.]
[People won' tell their friends because you wanted or asked. You need to make your offer worth sharing.]
[Facebook during their initial growth was well-positioned as a status signal for insecure and high-status students who craved to move up in some invisible hierarchy.]
[One kid brings a yo-yo to school but it doesn't create much traction. A charismatic fifth-grader who is good but not intimidating opens the Yo-yo Union club to all with three spare yo-yos to share; then there's three early adopters leading the way and soon there's thirty kids with yo-yos on the playground.]
[We only notice ideas that cross the chasm beyond neophiliacs.]
A regulação do streaming e a invenção dos cineastas de aplicativo
['motoboys' are victim to a high rate of fatal accidents in Brazil and the country's largest organ donors, but a universal healthcare system pays the bill and not iFood.]
[You serve many but profit from few; whales pay for minnows.]
If the goal is to get it over with, get the person off the phone, deny responsibility, read the script, use words like "as stated" and "our policy," then, please, sure, yes, keep doing what you're doing and watch it all fall apart.
['Cheap' can mean 'scared', a last refuge when there are no other ideas.]
[Status is an omnipresent layer in how people make decisions. It's always relative but what is perceived by others can differ from is believed internally. Some people want to hold on, and some want to move up; some even want to move down because it may mean safety and less competition.]
[Consider what the person you're serving measures with respect to their status before they make decisions.]
"Who eats first" and "who sits closest to the emperor" are questions that persist to this day. Both are status questions.
One involves dominion; the other involves affiliation.
[Amateurs create what they like, whereas professionals create what other people will like.]
[Spam scams are poorly worded to filter you out quick. They seek people who are dominated by greed and avoid wasting time on the careful and well-informed.]
[A brand is not your logo: it's a shorthand for the customer's expectations when they buy from or meet with you. Your brand is the promise they think they're making.]
If people care, you've got a brand.
[Start not with solutions but with people you seek to serve and a problem they want solved.]
[Commodity work isn't lucrative when other options are a click away.]
[Charging ten times more isn't about quantity: it's for a different story.]
[Grateful Dead favoured extremes on the XY axis (live recordings over polished albums, long jams for their fans over short radio hits) and owned them.]
[Beside the intended audience, there's also an accidental audience who ends up getting more satisfaction from tearing down the work.]
["For those who want A and believe B, choosing C is perfect." Based on who they are and what they want and know, everyone is always right.]
[Launching an extreme (fastest, cheapest, . most convenient) means breaking the former extreme's status.]
"I made this" is a very different statement than, "What do you want?"
[Specific is kind of brave as it's accountable: it either worked, matched, spread, or it didn't. Are you hiding behind everyone or anyone?]
[Find a corner of the market that can't wait for your attention, where you are the perfect answer.]
["How can I start a business?" is contrived, whereas "What would matter here?" relates to real needs of others.]
Focus on the smallest viable market: "How few people could find this indispensable and still make it worth doing?"
Instead of looking for members for your work, look for ways to do work for your members.
Everyone is lonely, insecure, and a bit of a fraud. And everyone cares about something.
[Pet food caters to the owner; humans don't even know what it tastes like.]
[Conspiracy theories might attract out of a desire for uniqueness or belonging in a small group.]
[When you show up with a flotation device to help someone drowning, they don't need ads to understand or be persuaded.]
[Old-fashioned marketing centers the one buying ads, and is done to the customer rather than for them.]
Marketing is the act of making change happen. Making is insufficient. You haven't made an impact until you've changed someone.
[Marketing is the generous act of helping someone solve their problem.]
Marketers don't use consumers to solve their company's problem; they use marketing to solve other people's problems. They have the empathy to know that those they seek to serve don't want what the marketer wants, don't believe what they believe, and don't care about what they care about. They probably never will.
[Humans tell themselves stories. We should consider those as indisputably true and not persuade otherwise.]
[Not the drill bit, not the quarter-inch hole, not the shelf, but rather the satisfaction of doing it themselves or the admiration from a spouse or a room free of clutter. Understand how the utility of an object is to serve their real wish: to feel safe and respected.]
[We buy how it makes us feel, and there aren't so many feelings to choose from. To deliver belonging, connection, peace of mind, status, or other desirable emotions likely means something worthwhile.]
[All communities need a mind programmer they trust. Today we call it "memetic engineer", "influencer", or "political leader", whereas before it was "priest" or "shaman".]
with correct deep breathing, the ribs gently massage the spine and internal organs.
Blood circulation throughout the body happens via blood vessels (veins, arteries, and capillaries). There are around 100,000 miles of blood vessels in an average adult body! These lie across or underneath, or are surrounded by muscles. Relaxed muscles that are not stiff and over-contracted won't squeeze and pinch the blood vessels, meaning they transport blood more effectively.
Remain relaxed, even when you are doing exercises that may seem at first to be primarily strength building; consider all the movements to really be a stretch.
- [Identify edges objectively.]
- [Calculate risk for every trade.]
- [Accept the risk or reject the trade.]
- [Act on edges without hesitation.]
- [Take money off the table when it's available.]
- [Monitor susceptibility for errors.]
[Partial take profit reduces risk on the stop by that same proportion.]
[One hierarchy of stages for taking profit can be 1. initial moves in your favour; 2. support or resistance on a larger timeframe (with a move of your stop to the entry point); and 3. significant high or low on a larger timeframe.]
[Variables used to deal with market dynamics can go in and out of effectiveness as market participants and their interactions change.]
Tagged: trading.
supports a great variety of business and private messaging & chat services like Slack, WhatsApp, WeChat, Messenger, Telegram, Google Hangouts, Skype, Zendesk and many more.
Open-source alternative to Beeper which makes much code available but not their main client.
a football player who trains with weights and sprints is "conditioning" his body for playing football.
A sub 2.15 marathon runner is not "fit" to dead lift 600 pounds of iron, and a world-class power lifter is not "fit" to run a sub-28-minute 10,000 meters. Using our narrow definition, neither athlete would be "fit" to perform any number of movements on the gymnastics balance beam. The Olympic gymnast would not be "fit" for sumo wrestling, and so forth.
Strength is a muscle's ability to contract against the resistance of an external object (a weight) or one's own body weight.
Power utilizes strength within an explosive burst of energy.
Agility encompasses the possibility of executing power movements in rapidly changing directions
