Part of the reason a level might hold is that everyone believes it will hold—and so everyone puts their bids there. If you are using PhD quantum physics and homological mirror symmetry to find your tech levels, and nobody else in the known universe is, the levels you find just might not mean much in the market.
Volume spikes at a price extreme are super useful indicators that huge volume has gone through and the move was rejected or accepted by the market.
Tagged: trading.
People yelling “CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION!” in all caps are technically right but practically not very helpful. There often is no causation, but there is a ton of information contained in the correlation between assets.
If corn doubles in price, those who can switch to soy will do so, pushing the price of soy futures higher. If Doordash rips higher and now looks overvalued, investors looking for food delivery apps to invest in might buy GrubHub instead.
When a Canadian crude oil producer sells their crude, they receive USD. They need CAD to pay their employees and shareholders so after they sell their crude, they need to sell USDCAD to convert the proceeds. If the price of crude doubles, the crude producer will have twice as many USD to sell and this will weigh on USDCAD.
Tagged: trading.
a bridge goes both ways
Look at any modern software application: buttons are verbs, boxes with drop-shadows are nouns, API requests are grammatical structures. We’re not “using” interfaces so much as speaking them. When you pick up a new piece of software you can usually operate it but you lack fluency, you’re still learning the dialect.
If real rates [(yield minus inflation)] are falling and negative, that generally means that central banks are enacting extremely loose policy.
[Increasing US rates and real rates is generally bad for gold.]
Positioning Bull Market Bear Market Long and increasing Very Bullish Long and stable Bullish Long but falling BEARISH Short and stable Bearish Short and getting more short Very bearish Short but buying back BULLISH
When the market anticipates an upcoming event, it will tend to position in the direction of least regret.
[If XAUEUR isn't available on your platform sell XAUUSD and buy EURUSD.]
[If I make this 1% better each time, it will be 1.62x better after 49 times].
[A good rule of thumb for new traders is to set the stop loss an average day range away from the entry. If I know nothing else about a security, I do this. Anything smaller risks to be stopped out by noise.]
[Add 3 pips to stop loss for slippage.]
[Position size is the output, not input.]
Tagged: trading.
Fallacies of distributed computing
- The network is reliable;
- Latency is zero;
- Bandwidth is infinite;
- The network is secure;
- Topology doesn't change;
- There is one administrator;
- Transport cost is zero;
- The network is homogeneous;
There are 9 circles shaping the rocket. The circle count can be further reduced to seven or even four, but this yields shapes that are too simple and not very interesting.
It is easy to simplify things, the trick is to know when to stop.
Rethinking the Future of Bluesky: Challenges and Possibilities of a Decentralized Social Network
The fact that a banned account in one unit can simply join another underlines both the promise and the difficulty of decentralization. What one person sees as resilience, another may see as irresponsibility.
in theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is.
['Social aggregation' features like global search, notifications, feeds, and shared moderation are what] blows the “personal sites” paradigm out of the water. People are social creatures, and we want to congregate in shared spaces. We don’t just want to visit each other’s sites—we want to hang out together, and social apps provide the shared infrastructure.
The web Alice created—who she follows, what she likes, what she has posted—is trapped in a box that’s owned by somebody else. To leave it is to leave it behind.
Those megabytes of JSON you got on your way out are dead data. It’s like a branch torn apart from its tree. It doesn’t belong anywhere. To give a new life to our data, we’d have to collectively export it and then collectively import it into some next agreed-upon social app—a near-impossible feat of coordination. Even then, the network effects are so strong that most people would soon find their way back.
Open social frees up our data like open source freed up our code. Open social ensures that products can get a new life, that people can’t be locked out of what they have created, and that products can be forked and remixed. You don’t need an “everything app” when data from different apps circulates in the open web.
nobody can take away your files
I just need to allow them to flow by themselves. Enough motivation will create the kind of atmosphere that everything goes smoothly.
atproto, nostr, webxdc, solid, remotestorage, and 'dApps' each have a different focus and data flow.
but i can't help but see them as collections of "web apps".
and think it'd be possible and cool to give each web app the combined user base of the others.
might not share the network, but you can share the gui.
is it naive to wish that their web apps could support multiple or all of these instead of rebuilding similar apps per platform? isn't it made of the same stuff/standards but just read/writing data differently?
when i see "writing, photos, bookmarks, todos" rewritten because "platform", i can't help but think of "5 networks of screenshots posted from the other 4".
Visual diary of what kids eat in different parts of the world.
Observations on 6 years of journaling
["Rubber-ducking" is a programming term referring to people solving their own block by explaining it to another person; the lister can be replaced with a rubber duck.]
my journal is my rubber duck.
"I touched the phone for some specific reason an hour ago and didn't do that yet."
